【研究领域及成果】北京邮电大学国际项目管理研究所研究领域和研究成果(中英文)

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北京邮电大学国际项目管理研究所
研究领域和研究成果
(中英文)





北邮国际项目管理研究所所长  王长峰  教授  博士生导师

一、互联网与安全风险（预警、自治监控及应急管理）




         


1.安全风险预警与自治监控
研究内容：针对大型（科技）工程安全风险重大灾害，基于“场”理论深入研究了安全风险“场”的多维“时—空”分布规律，从本质上研究了风险致因机理，建立了风险预警指标体系；同时，基于最优控制理论提出了“大型建设工程复杂系统控制论”，通过识别大型工程系统所要解决的问题、未知初始条件和边界条件，建立大型(科技)工程多目标实时自治控制数学模型，研究适合求解数学模型的数值解法，提出控制策略；进而实现大型（科技）工程重大灾害自治预警(智能化)控制决策，制定重大灾害应急管理预案，最大程度地减少经济财产损失、人员伤亡和环境的破坏，实现大型（科技）工程重大灾害系统化、定量化、科学化、集成化、智能化管理，建立了“大数据环境下的大型（科技）工程安全风险预警与自治监控系统”平台。
研究水平：国内领先水平
支撑课题：
(1)国家自然基金项目（71271031）：基于最优控制理论的大型工程安全风险预警指标体系构建及控制与实证研究
(2)国防科工委“十五”重点基础研究项目（Z072003A001）：舰船建造过程风险识别与分析方法研究,国家科技重大专项（项目）知识产权风险多维致因机理与动态监控关键问题研究
2.应急决策与集成优化管理研究
研究内容：针对大型（科技）工程安全风险重大灾害，基于系统动力学（SD）提出了大型（科技）工程应急管理过程中各主客体之间的博弈关系；基于博弈论理论研究了其风险管理过程中多平台异构网络组织实体之间的相互作用，定义了异构组织实体之间的动态博弈，提出了博弈环境中监管者与应急管理决策者两组织实体之间相互博弈的特征；再根据两决策主体在实现风险最优控制的同时寻求各自利益最大化的特点，从竞争视角，建立了离散型博弈模型与连续型动态微分博弈模型，定性定量描述了风险管理过程中两主体之间的动态博弈过程，并采用MATLAB软件、决策理论、数值计算方法、最优化理论对模型进行定量求解，得出各组织实体的均衡策略(各自最佳应对策略)；最后，根据模型优化结果对模型进行灵敏度分析，综合对比各参数对系统影响，从而在管理层面完善突发事件的动态决策机制，为政府实施应急对策提供必要的理论与方法支持，实现工程应急管理中进行有效决策，达到综合集成优化管理。
研究水平：国内领先水平
支撑课题：教育部人文社科规划基金项目（9YJA630011）：基于动态微分博弈理论的重大(特大)型工程应急决策模型和实证研究
I、Internet and security risk (pre-warning, autonomous monitoring and emergency management)
1. Security risk pre-warning and autonomous monitoring
Research content: Aimed at the major disaster of security risk in mega (science and technology) project, based on the theory of “field” further study the distribution regularity of the multidimensional “space - time" in security risks "field", studied the mechanism of the risk cause from the essence, establish the index system of risk pre-warning; meanwhile, based on optimal control theory put forward the " the control theory of mega construction project complex system”,  by means of identifying the problems which to be solved in mega project system, the unknown initial conditions and the boundary conditions, establish the  mathematical model of multi-objective autonomous control in real time in mega (science and technology) project , study the numerical method for solving mathematical model, put forward control strategy; then achieve the control decisions of major disasters autonomous pre-warning (intelligent) in mega (science and technology) project, make emergency management plans of major disaster, minimize the economic property damage, casualties and environmental damage, realize the systematization, quantification, scientization, integration and intelligent management of major disasters in mega (science and technology) project,  established the platform for "the autonomous control system and  safety risk pre-warning of mega (science and technology) project in big data environment”.
Research level: domestic leading level
Support project:
(1)National natural funds subject (71271031):  the establishment and control and empirical research of safety risk pre-warning index system in mega project which based on optimal control theory.
(2)Important fundamental research project of State Commission of Science and Technology for National Defense Industry in the tenth" five year-plans" (Z072003A001):  The risk identification and analysis method study in Ship building process, the research of multidimensional cause mechanism and key problems of dynamic monitoring of the intellectual property risk in national science and technology major projects (project).
2. The research of emergency decision making and integrated optimization management
Research content: aimed the safety risk major disasters in of mega (science and technology) project, based on system dynamics (SD) put forward the game relationship between the subject and object in the process of emergency management in mega (science and technology) project; based on the game theory study the interaction between organizational entities in multi-platform heterogeneous network in the process of risk, define the dynamic game between the entities in heterogeneous organization, put forward the characteristic of game between two organizational entities which to be environment regulators and emergency management decision makers under game environment; then according to the characteristic that both the subject of decision-making make the risk optimized controlled at the same time seek ways to maximize their interests, from the perspective of competition, establish discrete type game model and continuous dynamic differential game model, descript the dynamic game process between the two subjects in the process of the risk management in qualitative and in quantitative, and using MATLAB software, decision theory, numerical calculation method, optimization theory to quantitative solving the model, work out the equilibrium strategy among organizational entities(the replying strategy in respective); Finally, according to the result of model optimization analyze sensitivity the model, contrast influence of the parameters to the system synthetically, So as to complete the dynamic decision-making mechanism of emergency in the management level, provide the necessary theory and method support for the government to implement emergency countermeasures, realize effective decision-making the in projects emergency management, make the optimized integrated management come true.
Research level: domestic leading level
Support project: Ministry of education of humanities and social science funds projects in scheme (9YJA630011): emergency decision-making model and empirical research of major (mega) projects based on dynamic differential game theory


二、知识产权与标准
   

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1.国际技术标准竞争及相关博弈问题研究
研究内容：主要基于博弈理论，针对国际技术标准竞争中国家利益及相关筹码间的博弈，从国家利益视角研究了国际标准竞争中获得国家利益最大化的策略方法，以及基于国家利益，将竞争筹码以及其对博弈均衡的影响，揭示了理论视角下标准竞争相关问题。进而基于博弈静态分析模型，定义了能够体现国家利益的收益函数，并结合标准产品市场的多阶段互动的特征，建立了多阶段的动态博弈分析模型，再运用逆推分析方法探究市场均衡，更加符合技术标准竞争的实际情况，确保了研究的科学性与合理性；同时，独创性地探究了对竞争筹码以及其对博弈均衡的影响、竞争筹码对国际技术标准竞争均衡结果的影响作用。最终，结合3G标准的应用，为我国4G产业和5G技术的发展提供了较高价值的参考依据。
研究水平：国内先进水平
支撑课题:国家科技重大专项（2011ZX03006001）:“新一代宽带无线移动通信网”专项知识产权战略发展环境分析
2.知识产权过程管理
研究内容:重大(科技)工程实施是以工程科技发展的局部跃升带动生产力的跨越发展，因此,其实施必然有效形成和拥有自主可控的知识产权，并以此来整合创新链，布局产业链，提升价值链。该方向主要研究：（1）重大(科技)工程立项前严格知识产权审议和分析；（2）对实施过程中主要研发节点和主要研发技术突破要开展动态实时跟踪与监测分析；（3）结题验收中创新成果的知识产权审核和评估；（4）结题验收后知识产权的运营与管理。
研究水平：国内先进水平
支撑课题:国家科技重大专项(项目)知识产权风险多维致因机理与动态监控关键问题研究
II、Intellectual Property and Standards
1、Study of international technical standards and competition issues related to the Game
Research content：Mainly based on game theory, aimed at international technical standards for game competition between national interests and related chips, and from the perspective of national interests in the competition of the international standard for national interests maximization strategy method, and based on national interests, their impact on the competitive chips equilibrium influence, reveals the standard of competition issues related to the theoretical perspective. In turn, based on the static game analysis model, defines the function to reflect the national interest income, and combined with a multi-stage standard interactive features of standard products market, the establishment of a dynamic multi-stage game analysis model, and then using reverse analysis method to explore the market equilibrium, more in line with the actual situation of technical standards competition to ensure  the scientific nature and rationality of study ;Meanwhile, the originality of chips explores the competition and its effect on the game equilibrium, the influence of competitive equilibrium effects on the results of international standard technology. Finally, combined with the application of 3G standard to provides higher value of reference for the development of 4G and 5G technology industry.
Research level: domestic advanced level
Support project: National science and technology major projects （2011ZX03006001）:"Next-generation broadband wireless mobile communications network "special strategic analysis environment for the development of intellectual property.
2、Intellectual Property Process Management
Research content：Major (science and technology) project implementation is based on the development of local engineering technology driven productivity jumped by leaps and bounds. Therefore, its implementation must form with independent control of intellectual property rights, and to integrate the innovation chain, the layout of industrial chain, enhance the value chain. The main direction of research: (1) major (science and technology) project before the project rigorous review and analysis of intellectual property rights; (2) in the process of implementation of the major nodes and major technological breakthrough research to conduct dynamic real-time tracking and monitoring analysis; (3) the concluding acceptance of innovation of intellectual property audit and assessment; (4)the operations and management of intellectual property rights after concluding acceptance.
Research level: domestic advanced level
Support project: National science and technology major projects (project) intellectual property risks multidimensional cause mechanism and key problems of dynamic monitoring


三、重大（科技）工程治理体系与治理能力
        
        
        

‍1.协同管理与创新
研究内容:
(1)宏观领域问题：主要研究重大（科技）工程实施过程中单位分割、部门分割、行业分割、地区分割等孤岛现象，研究导致实施过程中组织管理体系不合理，资源利用分散，整合创新链、建设产业链和提升价值链未能有机结合，创新生态体系在不断恶化等相关问题。
(2)微观领域问题：主要研究重大（科技）工程专项之间、子项目之间等的协同管理；科研主体和组织主体的协同管理；所涉及不同部门之间协同管理和不同项目产学研用的协同管理；单个重大（科技）工程内专业共同体、同旨共同体的协同管理；及单个重大（科技）工程内不同团队之间的协同管理等相关问题。
取得成果：国家科技重大专项创新型项目管理支撑理论及集成与协同管理模式,基于云计算理论大型科技（工程）项目异构组织云计算网络空间联盟体系结构、异构组织云计算网络空间联盟负载均衡机制
2.价值评估与绩效评价
如何科学有效地进行重大（科技）工程价值评估和绩效评价已经成为工程项目管理的关键，其研究具有很高的学术研究价值和实践意义。
该研究方向主要以大型工程决策阶段和实施阶段为研究对象，运用定量分析和定性分析的研究方法，结合工程的案例研究，提出了折现现金流方法、实物期权理论、二叉树期权定价模型等研究工程的价值评估和绩效评价问题，重点从项目评估、研发战略和项目组合管理三个方面研究大型工程项目的顶层设计，以及实施过程的绩效评价。
研究水平：国内先进水平
支撑课题:
(1)国家自然基金项目（70972123)：复杂动态环境下特大型工程项目过程管理综合集成研讨厅中组织知识集成优化管理和实证研究
(2)国家软科学计划重大项目（2012GXS2B012-02）：国家科技重大专项创新型项目管理支撑理论及集成与协同管理模式研究
(3)国家科技重大专项过程监控管理模式与实证研究（国家软科学计划重大项目，2013GXS3B060-02）
III、Governance system and governance ability in major (science and technology) project
1、Synergy management and innovation
The research content：
(1)The question in macro field: the main research is about Island phenomenon of the segmentation in unit, department, industry and region in the process of the major (science and technology) projects implementation .Research the issue that lead to the system of organize management unreasonable, Scattered resources use，the organic combination can’t actualize with incorporate innovative chain, incorporate innovative chain and construction chain, the worsening creative ecosystems.
(2)The question in microcosmic field: the main research is about the collaborative management between the major(science and technology) special projects and the sub-items, the collaborative management between the scientific research subjects and the organizations  subjects ,the collaborative management between the different departments and the different project in production, study, research and using，the collaborative management between professional communities and the purport communities in single major (science and technology) projects，and the collaborative management between the different teams in single major (science and technology) projects.
Achievement：the supporting theory and integration in the management of National science and technology major project with the synergy managerial mode, cloud computing cyberspace alliance system structure based on the theory of cloud computing and heterogeneous organization of major science and technology (engineering) projects with Load balancing mechanism of heterogeneous organization in cloud computing cyberspace alliance.
2、 Value evaluation and Performance evaluation
How to evaluate the value and performance scientifically and effectively in major (science and technology) projects has become the key of engineering project management，and this research have the high academic research value and practical significance.
The main research direction make  large project decision-making stage and implementation stage as the research object, and use the method of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, and with the research of engineering case propose the question about the Value evaluation and Performance evaluation in research engineering, such as discounted cash flow method, real option theory，binary tree option pricing model, and focusing on project evaluation, Research and development strategy and project portfolio management research the top of the large engineering project design and Performance evaluation in the process of Implementation.
Research level: The domestic advanced level
Support project:
(1)The National Natural Science Foundation Project (70972123): Organizational knowledge integration management optimization and empirical research in large engineering project administration hall for workshop of mega synthesis of process under the complex dynamic environment
(2)The major project of national soft science plan (2012GXS2B012-02): The national science and technology major projects supporting innovative project management theory and integration and collaborative management pattern research
(3)The study of national science and technology major projects process control management model and empirical research (The major project of national soft science plan, 2013GXS3B060-02)


四、互联网与智慧工程（过程与知识集成优化管理）
   

智慧工程基于云计算、物联网、移动互联和大数据等新兴技术,以及钱学森“大成智慧学”综合集成的思想,实时采集、处理、分析大型工程实施过程中的有效知识；进行大型工程趋势预测、制定专家预案；实现可视化自治智能化管理，旨在提高大型工程管理信息化水平，确保其过程管理科学决策，达到资源的最优配置，改善工程质量。
基于钱学森的“大成智慧学”综合集成管理的思想，以及“海—云” (“物联网-云计算”)计算，针对大型（科技）工程巨系统，采用综合集成研讨厅方法论。
综合集成研讨厅是处理复杂动态环境下大型（科技）工程巨系统的方法论，也是其组织及跨组织进行动态群体决策活动的重要场所,由专家体系、知识信息体系和信息技术体系组成。
基于综合集成理论，主要取得了大型科技（工程）项目过程管理综合集成研讨厅中组织和跨组织知识集成优化管理、管理能力及成熟度关键域、知识流程优化建模、基于云计算思想的大型科技（工程）项目异构组织知识集成优化管理理论，云计算网络空间联盟体系结构等研究成果，取得了水平较高的标志性科研成果，具有较高创新性。
研究水平：国内先进水平
支撑课题：
(1)国家自然基金项目（70972123)：复杂动态环境下特大型工程项目过程管理综合集成研讨厅中组织知识集成优化管理和实证研究
(2)教育部人文社科规划基金项目（9YJA630011）：基于动态微分博弈理论的重大（特大）型工程应急决策模型和实证研究
IV、The Internet and Intelligence Engineering (integrated optimization process and knowledge management)
Intelligent engineering based on emerging technologies such as cloud computing, Internet of Things, mobile Internet and big data, and the Integrated thinking from Qian Xuesen's "Theory of meta synthetic wisdom ". Intelligent engineering works on real-time acquisition, processing, analysis effective knowledge in the process of large-scale project implementation; going for a large engineering trend prediction and making expert plans; realizing visualization autonomous intelligent management. Intelligent engineering aims to improve the level of large-scale project information management, ensure scientific decision-making in the process management, reach the optimal configuration of resources, and improve the quality of the project.
Based on the Integrated thinking from Qian Xuesen's "Theory of meta synthetic wisdom", and the "sea - cloud" (" Internet of things - cloud computing ") computing, aiming at mega (science and technology) project, this text adopts the hall for workshop of metasynthetic engineering (HWME).
The hall for workshop of metasynthetic engineering(HWME) is a methodology which can deal with complex dynamic environment mega (science and technology) project, as well as the important places where the organizations and across organizations carry through dynamic group decision-making activities, forming by expert system, knowledge of information system and information technology system.
Based on the synthesize integrated(SI) theory, we mainly obtained research results such as mega (science and technology) project process management in hall for workshop of metasynthetic engineering(HWME) in which the organization and across organization knowledge integrated optimization management, management capability and maturity key domain, process of  knowledge optimization modeling, mega (science and technology) project heterogeneous organization knowledge integrated optimization management theory basing on cloud computing, and cloud computing network architecture space alliance. We achieved higher levels of scientific research achievements, with high creativity.
Research level: domestic leading level
Support project:
(1)National natural funds project (70972123): Integrated optimization of management knowledge and empirical research in complex dynamic environments mega project process management in the organization HWME.
(2) Ministry of Education of humanities and social science funds projects in scheme (9YJA630011): Major (oversize) engineering emergency decision-making model and empirical research based on the theory of the dynamic differential game type.


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